Economic experts have called on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to sustain monetary policy stability following the marginal decline in headline inflation to 15.91 per cent in June 2026.

The inflation figure, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), represents a 0.02 percentage point drop from the 15.93 per cent recorded in May and the first decline since February 2026.

The experts spoke in Abuja following the communique issued after the 306th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), held on July 20 and 21, 2026, at which the CBN retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.50 per cent for the second consecutive time.

A Lagos-based economist, Mr Joseph Ukwu, said the decision to hold rates showed that the apex bank was responding to prevailing economic indicators but warned that more needed to be done to ensure inclusive growth.

“Retaining the interest rate at 26.5 per cent for the second time in two months shows that the CBN is also on its toes, given the conditions of some critical indices, but it has to do more to ensure monetary rate stability that will enable inclusive growth,” he said.

Ukwu noted that while the marginal drop in inflation was a positive sign, the pace was too slow.

“Yes, headline inflation eased by 0.02 percentage points from 15.93 per cent to 15.91 per cent in one month between May and June 2026. You see that the inflation drop is small, which means all is not well yet,” he stated.

He added that the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States had created uncertainty in the global energy market, a development he said could have implications for Nigeria’s economy.

Also speaking, another economist, Mr Eze Onyekpere, said the high-interest-rate environment was constraining small businesses.

He urged the CBN to fully implement programmes such as the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) to enhance monetary rate stability and boost investor confidence.

“When you have a predictable interest rate, it encourages investors’ participation in the economy,” Onyekpere said.

CBN cites global risks, retains cautious stance

In a communique signed by the CBN Governor, Mr Olayemi Cardoso, the MPC said it decided to maintain the current policy stance after a thorough assessment of the balance of risks.

“Although headline inflation moderated marginally in June 2026, global uncertainties have heightened due mainly to the renewed hostilities in the Middle East. In view of the evolving developments, maintaining a cautious monetary policy stance remains appropriate,” the communique stated.

The Committee noted the potential pass-through effects of rising global energy prices on domestic inflation, but added that the Nigerian economy had remained largely resilient, reflecting gains from previous fiscal and monetary reforms.

“Maintaining the current monetary policy stance will provide an opportunity to closely monitor incoming data and assess the trajectory of inflation to guide future policy decisions,” Cardoso said.

The MPC also acknowledged the Federal Government’s renewed commitment to strengthening policy coordination with the monetary authority, noting that greater alignment between fiscal and monetary policies would enhance policy effectiveness.

The Committee further commended the government’s efforts to improve crude oil production and urged relevant agencies to strengthen reforms in other sectors, such as solid minerals, to complement government earnings.

Inflation, GDP and reserves

According to the CBN, headline inflation, year-on-year, eased marginally to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 15.93 per cent in May, ending three consecutive months of increases.

Food inflation, however, rose to 17.52 per cent in June from 16.96 per cent in May due to supply constraints, while core inflation moderated to 15.92 per cent from 16.82 per cent, largely on the back of exchange rate stability.

The 12-month average inflation rate also declined to 17.63 per cent in June from 18.36 per cent in May, marking the sixth consecutive month of moderation.

On growth, the CBN said real GDP expanded by 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 4.07 per cent in the preceding quarter, driven by the non-oil sector, which grew by 3.94 per cent.

Gross external reserves rose to $52.52 billion as of July 17, 2026, from $50.47 billion at the end of May, sufficient to finance about 11 months of imports of goods and services.

Cardoso projected that output growth would remain resilient in 2026, anchored on improved crude oil production and policy reforms, while inflation is expected to moderate further on continued foreign exchange stability and improved food supply as the harvest season approaches.

Analysts said sustaining monetary rate stability would be critical to attracting increased investment into the Nigerian economy.